Smoking a single cigarette could take 20 minutes off life expectancy, new study says

30 December 2024, 10:47 | Updated: 30 December 2024, 13:26

Each cigarette a person smokes could shorten their life by 20 minutes, according to new estimates.

The new figures are an increase on previous estimates, which suggested a cigarette shortens a smoker's life by 11 minutes.

The data suggests if a 10-a-day smoker quits on 1 January, then by 8 January they could "prevent loss of a full day of life".

By 20 February, their lives could be extended by a whole week.

If their quitting is successful until 5 August, they will likely live for a whole month longer than if they had continued to smoke.

The figures come from analysis commissioned by the Department for Health and Social Care and carried out by researchers from University College London (UCL).

According to the new estimates, the average man loses 17 minutes of life with every cigarette they smoke, while a woman's life is cut short by 22 minutes with each cigarette.

Researchers analysed up-to-date figures from long-term studies tracking the health of the population.

They said that the harm caused by smoking is "cumulative" and the sooner a person stops smoking, and the more cigarettes they avoid smoking, the longer they live.

The authors added: "Studies suggest that smokers typically lose about the same number of healthy years as they do total years of life.

"Thus smoking primarily eats into the relatively healthy middle years rather than shortening the period at the end of life, which is often marked by chronic illness or disability.

"So a 60-year-old smoker will typically have the health profile of a 70-year-old non-smoker."

The analysis, to be published in the Journal of Addiction, concludes: "We estimate that on average, smokers in Britain who do not quit lose approximately 20 minutes of life expectancy for each cigarette they smoke.

"This is time that would likely be spent in relatively good health.

"Stopping smoking at every age is beneficial but the sooner smokers get off this escalator of death the longer and healthier they can expect their lives to be."

What are the smoking and quitting rates?
By Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

Around six million adults in the UK are smokers, according to 2023 estimates from the Annual Population Survey (APS).

This is equivalent to 12% of the population, while in Scotland and Northern Ireland smoking rates are slightly higher than the UK average, at just over 13%.

In 2023, all four nations recorded their lowest proportion of current smokers since the survey began in 2011, when one in five UK adults on average smoked.

Some methodological changes have occurred over the period, but there has still been a clear trend in smoking reduction over the past decade, after factoring those in and accounting for some level of uncertainty around estimates.

People quitting smoking is a major contributor to the decline in smoking rates, with a separate Opinions and Lifestyle Survey finding 71% of former smokers had quit in 2023, the highest figure recorded since the survey began in 1974.

This survey draws on a different population and age group but has similar findings for the number of people who are currently smoking, at 11% of the population of Great Britain for those aged 16 and over.

The proportion of those who had quit smoking first overtook the level of current smokers in 1982 and has continued to increase steadily since, with some of the fastest increases in quitting over the last decade. According to the survey, more than half (56%) of people who currently smoked in 2023 intended to quit.

This survey also looks at the use of e-cigarettes (such as vapes), finding that an estimated 5.1 million people aged 16 and over currently use e-cigarettes in Great Britain. This represents 9.8% of the population, slightly less than the proportion who smoke cigarettes.

Use of e-cigarettes was found to be higher among 16 to 24-year-olds than in other age groups, at 16%, and higher among current smokers and ex-smokers than in the general population, at 32% and 19% respectively.

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Dr Sarah Jackson, principal research fellow from the UCL Alcohol and Tobacco Research Group, said it was "vital that people understand how much quitting can improve their life expectancy".

"The sooner a person stops smoking, the longer they live. Quitting at any age substantially improves health and the benefits start almost immediately."

Public health minister Andrew Gwynne said: "Smoking is an expensive and deadly habit and these findings reveal the shocking reality of this addiction, highlighting how important it is to quit.

"The new year offers a perfect chance for smokers to make a new resolution and take that step."